Publications

Working Paper
Gerald L. Neuman. Working Paper. “Giving Meaning and Effect to Human Rights: The Contributions of Human Rights Committee Members”. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This essay discusses the multiple roles played by the members of the Human Rights Committee in giving effect to the rights guaranteed by the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. It argues that the most important contribution the members make to the human rights project consists in their credible, professional elaboration of those rights, particularly by means of the Committee’s Views and General Comments, as emphasized by the International Court of Justice in the Diallo case. While the Committee members should be open to learning from the insights of other treaty bodies, they should resist urgings toward a simplistic harmonization. The texts and interpretations of other ‘core’ human rights treaties must be used with care in the members’ independent exercise of their own interpretive function.

Sunita Kotnala and Rajashree Ghosh. Working Paper. “GLOBAL SOUTH AND FEMINIST LEADERSHIP IN SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT.” ‘colonial(ist)’ and ‘white feminist’ bias in international development.Abstract

We continue to see the colonial(ist) approach in international development and the ‘white feminist’ interventions in the field-from conception to implementation of projects. We are learning a lot from established development theories, now it is time to broaden our horizons, go beyond definitions within western feminist
paradigms used in international development, to enhance and encourage alternative voices and leadership.

colonialist_and_white_feminist_bias_in_international_development_leadership.pdf
J. Vernon Henderson, Tim L. Squires, Adam Storeygard, and David N. Weil. Working Paper. “"The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade"”. hendersonetal2016.pdf
Elhanan Helpman. Working Paper. “"Globalization and Wage Inequality"”.Abstract
Globalization has been blamed for rising inequality in rich and poor countries. Yet the views of many protagonists in this debate are not based on evidence. To help form an evidence-based opinion, I review in this paper the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between globalization and wage inequality. While the initial analysis that started in the early 1990s focused on a particular mechanism that links trade to wages, subsequent studies have considered several other channels, and the quantitative assessment of the size of these influences has been carried out in multiple studies. Building on this research, I conclude that trade played an appreciable role in increasing wage inequality, but that its cumulative effect has been modest, and that globalization does not explain the preponderance of the rise in wage inequality within countries.
helpman2016.pdf
Cevat Giray Aksoy, Sergei Guriev, and Daniel S. Treisman. Working Paper. “"Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide"”.Abstract
How does international trade affect the popularity of governments and leaders? We provide the first large-scale, systematic evidence that the divide between skilled and unskilled workers worldwide is producing corresponding differences in the response of political preferences to trade shocks. Using a unique data set including 118 countries and nearly 450,000 individuals, we find that growth in high skill intensive exports (of goods and services) increases approval of the leader and incumbent government among skilled individuals. Growth in high skill intensive imports has the opposite effect. There is no effect on political approval among the unskilled. To identify exogenous variation in international trade, we exploit the time-varying effects of air and sea distances in bilateral trade flows. Our findings suggest that the political effects of international trade differ with skill intensity and that skilled individuals respond differently from their unskilled counterparts to trade shocks.
aksoyetal2018.pdf
Leonardo Baccini and Stephen Weymouth. Working Paper. “Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and U.S. Presidential Voting”. baccini_weymouth.pdf
Leonardo Baccini and Stephen Weymouth. Working Paper. “Gone For Good: Deindustrialization, White Voter Backlash, and U.S. Presidential Voting”. baccini_weymouth.pdf
Margaret E. Peters. Working Paper. “Government Finance and Imposition of Serfdom after the Black Death”.Abstract
After the Black Death, serfdom disappeared in Western Europe while making a resurgence in Eastern Europe. What explains this difference? I argue that serfdom was against the interests of the sovereign and was only imposed when the nobility, most of whom needed serfdom to maintain their economic and social standing, had leverage to impose their will. One way the nobility gained this power was through financing the military. Using data from the fourteenth to through the eighteenth centuries, I show that serfdom was imposed in areas where sovereigns had few other resources to pay for war or defense. This paper addresses the causes of a historical institution that scholars from Moore (1966) to Acemoglu and Robinson (2006) have argued played an important role in the development, or lack thereof, of democracy and long-term economic growth. 
peters2019.pdf
Sonal Pandya, Luca Cian, and Raj Venkatesan. Working Paper. “Grocery Shopping for America: External vs. Internal Threats to National Identity”.Abstract
Nationalist political strategies capitalize on the psychology of external threats to justify harshness towards outgroups. We hypothesize that while external threats strengthen national identication, harshness towards outgroups that degrades in-group's constituent values (internal threat) weakens national identication. We test the causal effects of US war casualties (external threat) and Abu Ghraib torture scandal (internal threat) on national identication using weekly sales of American-sounding supermarket brands, a behavioral proxy for national identification. In our sample spanning over 8,000 brands and 1,100 supermarkets, the market share of American-sounding brands increased in stores following the death of a solider from the same county. These same brands' national market shares
declined during Abu Ghraib. A July 2018 lab experiment reveals that Chinese import competition (external threat) strengthens Americans' national identication but backlash against refugee family border separations (internal threat) weakens identication. Our ndings suggest that nationalist political strategies can backfire if pushed too far.
pandyatal2019-abughraib.pdf
Laurent Bouton, Paola Conconi, Francisco Pino, and Maurizio Zanardi. Working Paper. “"Guns, Environment, and Abortion: How Single-minded Voters Shape Politicians' Decisions"”.Abstract
We study how electoral incentives aect policy choices on secondary issues, which only minorities of voters care intensely about. We develop a model in which office and policy motivated politicians choose to support or oppose regulations on these issues. We derive conditions under which politicians flip-flop, voting according to their policy preferences at the beginning of their terms, but in line with the preferences of single-issue minorities as they approach re-election. To assess the evidence, we study U.S. senators' votes on gun control, environment, and reproductive rights. In line with our model's predictions, election proximity has a pro-gun effect on Democratic senators and a pro-environment effect on Republican senators. These effects only arise for non-retiring senators, who represent states where the single-issue minority is of intermediate size. Also in line with our theory, election proximity has no impact on senators' decisions on reproductive rights, because of the presence of single-issue minorities on both sides.
boutonetal2018.pdf
Daron Acemoglu. Working Paper. “Harms of AI”.Abstract

This essay discusses several potential economic, political and social costs of the current path of AI technologies. I argue that if AI continues to be deployed along its current trajectory and remains unregulated, it may produce various social, economic and political harms. These include: damaging competition, consumer privacy and consumer choice; excessively automating work, fueling inequality, inefficiently pushing down wages, and failing to improve worker productivity; and damaging political discourse, democracy's most fundamental lifeblood. Although there is no conclusive evidence suggesting that these costs are imminent or substantial, it may be useful to understand them before they are fully realized and become harder or even impossible to reverse, precisely because of AI's promising and wide-reaching potential. I also suggest that these costs are not inherent to the nature of AI technologies, but are related to how they are being used and developed at the moment - to empower corporations and governments against workers and citizens. As a result, efforts to limit and reverse these costs may need to rely on regulation and policies to redirect AI research. Attempts to contain them just by promoting competition may be insufficient.

acemoglu_harms_of_ai.pdf
Steven D. Levitt. Working Paper. “"Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness."”.Abstract
Little is known about whether people make good choices when facing important decisions. This paper reports on a large-scale randomized field experiment in which research subjects having difficulty making a decision flipped a coin to help determine their choice. For important decisions (e.g. quitting a job or ending a relationship), those who make a change (regardless of the outcome of the coin toss) report being substantially happier two months and six months later. This correlation, however, need not reflect a causal impact. To assess causality, I use the outcome of a coin toss. Individuals who are told by the coin toss to make a change are much more likely to make a change and are happier six months later than those who were told by the coin to maintain the status quo. The results of this paper suggest that people may be excessively cautious when facing life-changing choices.
levitt2016.pdf
Yiming Cao, Benjamin Enke, Armin Falk, Paola Giuliano, and Nathan Nunn. Working Paper. “Herding, Warfare, and a Culture of Honor: Global Evidence”.Abstract
We examine the importance of norms of revenge and punishment in perpetuating global conflicts. We focus on the well-known ‘culture of honor’ hypothesis from social psychology,
which posits that traditional herding practices tend to generate moral systems conducive to punishment and revenge-taking. Using a combination of ethnographic and folklore data, global information on the frequency and intensity of conflicts, and multinational surveys,
we find that the descendants of herders experience significantly more frequent and severe conflict today, and they report being more willing to take revenge and punish others in global surveys. These patterns are found across ethnolinguistic groups, subnational regions, and
countries. The evidence suggests that a society’s traditional form of subsistence generated a functional morality that plays an important role in shaping conflict across the globe today.
cao_et_al_culture_of_honor_new.pdf
Giovanna D'Adda and Guido de Blasio. Working Paper. “Historical Legacy and Policy Effectiveness: the Long-Term Influence of pre-Unification Borders in Italy”.Abstract

This paper investigates the interplay between cultural traditions and policy effectiveness. It explores the differential impact of a large development program (Cassa per il Mezzogiorno), implemented for four decades, starting in the 1950s, to stimulate convergence between Italy’s South and the more developed North, on municipalities with different histories. Namely, we consider a sample of municipalities located on either side of the historical border of the Kingdom of Sicily, whose legacy is considered, from Putnam (1993) onwards, to be a prime-facie cause of Southern Italy’s underdevelopment. Having been part of the Kingdom of Sicily is associated with a negative impact of development policies, but only when the allocation of development funds through the Cassa per il Mezzogiorno suffered from low quality of governance and was driven by political considerations rather than by efficiency ones.

daddadeblasio2014.pdf
Nicola Fontana, Tommaso Nannicini, and Guido Tabellini. Working Paper. “"Historical Roots of Political Extremism: The Effects of Nazi Occupation of Italy."”.Abstract

The Italian civil war and the Nazi occupation of Italy occurred at a critical juncture, just before the birth of a new democracy and when, for the first time in a generation, Italians were choosing political affiliations and forming political identities. In this paper we study how these traumatic events shaped the new political system. We exploit geographic heterogeneity in the intensity and duration of the civil war, and the persistence of the battlefront along the “Gothic line” cutting through Northern-Central Italy. We find that the Communist Party gained votes in the post-war elections where the Nazi occupation and the civil war lasted longer, mainly at the expense of the centrist and catholic parties. This effect persists until the early 1990s. Evidence also suggests that this is due to an effect on political attitudes. Thus, the foreign occupation and the civil war left a lasting legacy of political extremism and polarization on the newborn Italian democracy.

fontanaetal2017.pdf
Andrew T. Young. Working Paper. “"Hospitalitas"”.Abstract

Good government requires a constitution that demarcates what political agents can and cannot do, and such a constitution must be self-enforcing. The medieval West was characterized by the estates system, where the political power of monarchs was roughly balanced by that of a landed and militarized nobility. This rough balance of power contributed to a Western tradition of limited government and constitutional bargaining. I argue that this balance has important roots in the fifth and sixth century barbarian settlements that occurred within the frontiers of the declining Western Roman Empire. These settlements provided barbarians with allotments consisting of lands or claims to taxes due from those lands. These allotments aligned the incentives of barbarian warriors and Roman landowners; they also realigned (or newly aligned) the incentives of barbarian warriors and leadership elite as their roving confederacies became stationary kingdoms. Barbarian military forces became decentralized and the warriors became political powerful shareholders of the realm.

young2015.pdf
Fernando V. Ferreira, Jeanna H. Kenney, and Benjamin Smith. Working Paper. “Household Mobility, Networks, and Gentrification of Minority Neighborhoods in the US ”.Abstract
We study how recent gentrification shocks impact Black and Hispanic neighborhoods, including minority households move to after a shock and if the subsequent spatial distribution of households within a labor market area affects segregation. We first report that household moves from a given neighborhood are concentrated to a few destinations. For minority neighborhoods, destinations tend to have similar minority shares but are farther away from downtown. Those mobility patterns are partially explained by neighborhood networks. We then use Bartik-style labor market income shocks to show that gentrification has many effects. In Black neighborhoods, gentrification increases house prices and reduces the share of Black households while increasing the share of White households. For movers from Black neighborhoods, gentrification increases the share of movers going to top 1 and 2 destinations based on neighborhood networks and increases the share of households moving out of the MSA, but does not change the pattern of households moving to neighborhoods with similar Black shares that are farther away from downtown areas. Hispanic neighborhoods have negligible effects from gentrification. Finally, our model reveals that overall labor market area segregation decreases after a gentrification shock because highly Black neighborhoods become less segregated.
ferreira_et_al_gentrification.pdf
Charlotte Cavaille and Jeremy Ferwerda. Working Paper. “How Distributional Conflict over In-Kind Benefits Generates Support for Anti-Immigrant Parties”.Abstract
What role do material concerns play in activating support for anti-immigrant parties? Previous research has hypothesized the existence of a welfare state channel, in which citizens exposed to a decline in the net value of per capita transfers will be more supportive of anti-immigrant policies. Yet, evidence that the welfare state channel contributes to the rise of the Far Right at the national level is mixed. This paper focuses on social programs that provide geographically constrained in-kind goods as especially prone to creating distributional conflict between immigrants and natives. We leverage exogenous variation in the intensity of this conflict to identify its effect on electoral outcomes. We focus on Austria’s affordable housing program, which benefits a quarter of households. In 2006, a EU directive forced municipalities to open public housing to previously excluded immigrants. As we demonstrate, this reform sharply increased support for anti-immigrant parties in affected municipalities. More broadly, our findings suggest that populist parties may have benefited from the recent confluence of austerity measures and concerns surrounding the congestion of in-kind social benefits.
cavailleferwerdand.pdf
Fouirnaies. Working Paper. “How Do Campaign Spending Limits Affect Electoral Competition? Evidence from Great Britain, 1885-2010”.Abstract
In half of the democratic countries in the world, candidates face legal constraints on
how much money they can spend on their electoral campaigns, yet we know little about
the consequences of these restrictions. I study how spending limits affect electoral competition in British House of Commons elections. On the basis of archival material, I
have collected new data on the more than 58,000 candidates who ran for a parliamentary seat from 1885 to 2010, recording how much money each candidate spent, and the spending limit they faced. To identify causal effects, I exploit within-constituency variation in spending caps induced by reforms of the spending-limit formula that affected some, but not all constituencies. Consistent with theoretical predictions from a contest model, the results indicate that when the level of permitted spending is raised, campaigns become more expensive, fewer candidates run for offce, the proportion of wealthy candidates increases, and the nancial and electoral advantages enjoyed by incumbents are amplied.
fouirnaies2018.pdf
Gary King and Melissa Sands. Working Paper. “How Human Subjects Research Rules Mislead You and Your University, and What to Do About it”. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Universities require faculty and students planning research involving human subjects to pass formal certification tests and then submit research plans for prior approval. Those who diligently take the tests may better understand certain important legal requirements but, at the same time, are often misled into thinking they can apply these rules to their own work which, in fact, they are not permitted to do. They will also be missing many other legal requirements not mentioned in their training but which govern their behaviors. Finally, the training leaves them likely to completely misunderstand the essentially political situation they find themselves in. The resulting risks to their universities, collaborators, and careers may be catastrophic, in addition to contributing to the more common ordinary frustrations of researchers with the system. To avoid these problems, faculty and students conducting research about and for the public need to understand that they are public figures, to whom different rules apply, ones that political scientists have long studied. University administrators (and faculty in their part-time roles as administrators) need to reorient their perspectives as well. University research compliance bureaucracies have grown, in well-meaning but sometimes unproductive ways that are not required by federal laws or guidelines. We offer advice to faculty and students for how to deal with the system as it exists now, and suggestions for changes in university research compliance bureaucracies, that should benefit faculty, students, staff, university budgets, and our research subjects.

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